åǥÁö

ÃÊ°í·ÉÈ­ ½Ã´ë, °æÁ¦¼ºÀåÀ» ²ø¾î³»´Â ¹æ¹ý

1964¡­2012³â µ¿¾È Àü ¼¼°è °æÁ¦ÀÇ ¿¬Æò±Õ ¼ºÀå·üÀº 3.6%¿´´Ù. ±×·¯³ª ¾ÕÀ¸·Î 50³â°£ ¿¹ÃøµÇ´Â ¼ºÀå·üÀº ¿¬Æò±Õ 2.1%¿¡ ºÒ°úÇÏ´Ù. ´õ±¸³ª ¸ÆŲÁö´Â ³ë·ÉÈ­¿¡ µû¸¥ Àα¸ °¨¼ÒºÐÀ» º¸ÃæÇÏ·Á¸é ¾ÕÀ¸·Î »ý»ê¼ºÀ» ¿ÀÈ÷·Á 80% ´Ã·Á¾ß ÇÑ´Ù°í ÁÖÀåÇÑ´Ù. ¼ºÀåÀÇ °¡¼ÓÈ­°¡ ¾ÕÀ¸·Î °¡´ÉÇÑ ÀÏÀϱî? À̸¦ À§ÇØ ÇØ¾ß ÇÒ ÀÏÀº ¹«¾ùÀΰ¡?





1964¡­2012³â µ¿¾È Àü ¼¼°è °æÁ¦ÀÇ ¿¬Æò±Õ ¼ºÀå·üÀº 3.6%¿´´Ù. ±×·¯³ª ¾ÕÀ¸·Î 50³â°£ ¿¹ÃøµÇ´Â ¼ºÀå·üÀº ¿¬Æò±Õ 2.1%¿¡ ºÒ°úÇÏ´Ù. ´õ±¸³ª ¸ÆŲÁö´Â ³ë·ÉÈ­¿¡ µû¸¥ Àα¸ °¨¼ÒºÐÀ» º¸ÃæÇÏ·Á¸é ¾ÕÀ¸·Î »ý»ê¼ºÀ» ¿ÀÈ÷·Á 80% ´Ã·Á¾ß ÇÑ´Ù°í ÁÖÀåÇÑ´Ù. ¼ºÀåÀÇ °¡¼ÓÈ­°¡ ¾ÕÀ¸·Î °¡´ÉÇÑ ÀÏÀϱî? À̸¦ À§ÇØ ÇØ¾ß ÇÒ ÀÏÀº ¹«¾ùÀΰ¡?


°æÁ¦¸¦ ¼ºÀå½ÃÅ°´Â µ¥´Â ´ÙÀ½ µÎ °¡Áö ÁÖ¿äÇÑ ¹æ¹ýÀÌ ÀÖ´Ù.


¢º ³ëµ¿ÀÚÀÇ ¼ö¸¦ ´Ã¸²À¸·Î½á ÀÏÀÇ ¾çÀ» È®´ë½ÃŲ´Ù.
¢º ÀÎ´ç »ý»ê¼ºÀ» Áõ´ë½ÃÄÑ ÀÏÀÇ ¾çÀ» È®´ë½ÃŲ´Ù.


ºÒÇàÈ÷µµ ù ¹ø° Á¢±Ù¹ýÀº ¼±Åà ºÒ°¡´ÉÇÏ´Ù. º£À̺ñºÕ ¼¼´ëÀÇ ³ëÈ­¿Í Àü ¼¼°è Ãâ»ý·üÀÇ ±Þ¼ÓÇÑ Ç϶ô µî Àα¸ Æ®·»µå ¶§¹®¿¡ ´Ü¼øÈ÷ Á÷¾÷À» °¡Áø »ç¶÷µéÀÇ ¼ýÀÚ¸¦ ´Ã·Á °æÁ¦¸¦ ¼ºÀå½Ãų ¼ö ÀÖ´Â ½Ã´ë´Â Á¾¾ðÀ» °íÇß´Ù.


1964³â¿¡¼­ 2014³â »çÀÌ °í¿ëÀº Çظ¶´Ù Æò±Õ 1.7%¾¿ ´Ã¾úÁö¸¸ ¾ÕÀ¸·Î 50³â°£ ¸Å³â 0.3%·Î Å©°Ô ¶³¾îÁú °ÍÀ¸·Î º¸ÀδÙ. µû¶ó¼­ ¾ÕÀ¸·ÎÀÇ ¼¼°è °æÁ¦ÀÇ ¿î¸íÀº µÎ ¹ø° ¼±ÅÃÁö, »ý»ê¼ºÀÇ Áõ´ë¿¡ °É·Á ÀÖÀ½ÀÌ ºÐ¸íÇÏ´Ù.


±× Çʿ伺Àº ¸Å¿ì ½Ã±ÞÇѵ¥, ¼¼°èÀÇ GDP ¼ºÀåÀÌ Áö³­ 50³â µ¿¾ÈÀº 3.6%¿´´ø µ¥ ¹ÝÇØ, ¾ÕÀ¸·Î 50³â°£Àº 2.1%¿¡ ±×Ä¥ °ÍÀ¸·Î ¿¹»óµÇ±â ¶§¹®ÀÌ´Ù. ½ÇÁ¦·Î ÀÌ·¸°Ô µÈ´Ù¸é, ´ÙÀ½ ¹Ý¼¼±âÀÇ Æò±Õ GDP ¼ºÀåÀº ´ëħüGreat Recession¿¡¼­ °íÅ뽺·´°Ô ȸº¹ÇØ ¿Ô´ø Áö³­ 5³â°£º¸´Ùµµ 3ºÐÀÇ 1À̳ª ³·Àº ¼öÁØÀÌ µÇ´Â °ÍÀÌ´Ù. Áï 1964³â ÀÌ·¡ 50³â µ¿¾È 600% ¼ºÀåÇØ ¿Â ¼¼°è °æÁ¦°¡ ¾ÕÀ¸·Î 2064³â±îÁö 300% ¼ºÀå¿¡ ±×Ä¡´Â ¼ÀÀÌ´Ù. ÀÌ·± Ç϶ô¼¼¸¦ »ó¼âÇÒ À¯ÀÏÇÑ ¹æ¹ýÀº °ú°Å 50³â µ¿¾ÈÀÇ ¸Í·ÄÇß´ø ±â¼¼º¸´Ùµµ ´õ ºü¸£°Ô, »ý»ê¼ºÀ» 80% Áõ´ë½ÃÅ°´Â °ÍÀÌ´Ù. Áï ÇöÀç 1.8%ÀÎ »ý»ê¼º Áõ°¡À²À» 3.3%·Î ¿Ã¸°´Ù´Â Àǹ̴Ù.


ÀÌ°Ô °¡´ÉÇÑ ÀÏÀΰ¡? ¸ÆŲÁö ±Û·Î¹ú ¿¬±¸¼ÒÀÇ ¡°³ë·ÉÈ­ ½Ã´ëÀÇ ¼¼°è ¼ºÀ塱À̶ó´Â ¿¬±¸¿¡ µû¸£¸é, ½±Áö´Â ¾ÊÁö¸¸ °¡´ÉÇÑ ÀÏÀÌ´Ù. °ÅÀÇ 25³â°£ °æÁ¦ ¼ºÀå¿¡ ´ëÇØ ¿¬±¸ÇØ ¿Â ¸ÆŲÁö ±Û·Î¹ú ¿¬±¸¼ÒÀÇ ¼ÒÀåµé, ¸®Ã³µå µ½½ºRichard Dobbs, Á¦ÀÓ½º ¸Å´ÏÄ«James Manyika, Á¶³ª´Ü ¿öÿJonathan WoetzelÀº ¼¼°è GDPÀÇ 80%¸¦ ±¸¼ºÇÏ´Â 20°³±¹(G19 ±¹°¡ ¹× ³ªÀÌÁö¸®¾Æ)¿¡¼­ °³¼±ÀÇ ±âȸ¸¦ Æ÷ÂøÇß´Ù.


1964¡­2012³â µ¿¾È Àü ¼¼°è °æÁ¦ÀÇ ¿¬Æò±Õ ¼ºÀå·üÀº 3.6%¿´´Ù. ±×·¯³ª ¾ÕÀ¸·Î 50³â°£ ¿¹ÃøµÇ´Â ¼ºÀå·üÀº ¿¬Æò±Õ 2.1%¿¡ ºÒ°úÇÏ´Ù. ´õ±¸³ª ¸ÆŲÁö´Â ³ë·ÉÈ­¿¡ µû¸¥ Àα¸ °¨¼ÒºÐÀ» º¸ÃæÇÏ·Á¸é ¾ÕÀ¸·Î »ý»ê¼ºÀ» ¿ÀÈ÷·Á 80% ´Ã·Á¾ß ÇÑ´Ù°í ÁÖÀåÇÑ´Ù. ¼ºÀåÀÇ °¡¼ÓÈ­°¡ ¾ÕÀ¸·Î °¡´ÉÇÑ ÀÏÀϱî? À̸¦ À§ÇØ ÇØ¾ß ÇÒ ÀÏÀº ¹«¾ùÀΰ¡?


Àá½Ã µÚ ±×µéÀÇ Æ¯º°ÇÑ ±Ç°í»çÇ×À» ÀÚ¼¼È÷ È®ÀÎÇØ º¸°ÚÁö¸¸ ¿ì¼± ±× ÇÙ½ÉÀ» ¸»ÇÑ´Ù¸é, ¸¸¾à ȸ»ç¿Í Á¤ºÎµéÀÌ ÇöÁ¸ÇÏ´Â ÃÖ»óÀÇ ¹æ¾ÈÀ» äÅÃÇϱ⸸ Çصµ »ý»ê¼º Áõ°¡À²ÀÌ 3%±îÁö´Â ¿À¸¦ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù´Â °ÍÀÌ´Ù. ±× ³ª¸ÓÁö »ý»ê¼ºÀº Çõ½ÅÀ» ÅëÇØ °¡´ÉÇÏ´Ù.


»ó¼¼È÷ »ìÆ캸±â¿¡ ¾Õ¼­ ³ëµ¿ ÀηÂÀÌ ¿Ö Áپ´ÂÁö È®ÀÎÇغ¸±â·Î ÇÏÀÚ. Á÷Àå ¿©¼ºÀÇ Áõ°¡, ÇÇÀÓ ±â±¸ÀÇ ¹ßÀü, ¼Ò°¡Á·¿¡ ´ëÇÑ º¯È­µÈ »çȸÀû °¡Ä¡ µî ¿©·¯ ¿äÀεéÀÌ °áÇÕÇÏ¿© ¼¼°èÀûÀÎ Ãâ»êÀ² °¨¼Ò¸¦ À̲ø°í ÀÖ´Ù. À¯¿£ÀÇ ¡®¼¼°è Àα¸ Àü¸ÁWorld Population Prospects¡¯¿¡ µû¸£¸é ¼¼°è 50°³±¹ÀÇ Àα¸´Â Áö±ÝºÎÅÍ 2050³â±îÁö Áö¼ÓÀûÀ¸·Î ÁÙ¾îµé °ÍÀÌ´Ù. ¿¹¸¦ µé¾î ·¯½Ã¾ÆÀÇ Àα¸´Â 22% °¨¼ÒÇÒ °ÍÀÌ°í, ¿ìÅ©¶óÀ̳ª´Â 43%°¡ °¨¼ÒÇÏ¿© °ÅÀÇ Àý¹ÝÀ¸·Î ÁÙ¾îµç´Ù.


<<ÅÖ ºó ¿ä¶÷The Empty Cradle>>ÀÇ ÀúÀÚÀÎ Àα¸Åë°èÇÐÀÚ Çʸ³ ·Õ¸ÇPhilip Longman¿¡ µû¸£¸é Áß±¹Àº 2050³â ÀÌÈÄ¿¡ °¢ ¼¼´ëº°·Î ¾Õ¼± ¼¼´ëº¸´Ù 20~30%°¡ ÁÙ¾îµé °ÍÀ̶ó°í ÇÑ´Ù. º¥ ¿ÍÅÙ¹ö±×Ben Wattenberg´Â ÀÚ½ÅÀÇ Ã¥ <<Àα¸ °¨¼ÒFewer>>¿¡¼­ À¯·´Àº ÇöÀç ¸Å³â 70¸¸ ¸íÀÇ Àα¸¸¦ ÀÒ°í ÀÖÀ¸¸ç, 2050³â±îÁö ¸Å³â 300¸¸ ¸íÀÌ °è¼Ó ÁÙ¾îµé °ÍÀ̶ó ÁÖÀåÇß´Ù.


¸ÆŲÁö ±Û·Î¹ú ¿¬±¸¼Ò¿¡ µû¸£¸é ¸ðµç G19 ±¹°¡µéÀÇ Àα¸´Â Àü¹ÝÀûÀ¸·Î °¨¼ÒÇÒ °ÍÀ¸·Î ¿¹»óµÈ´Ù. µ¶ÀÏ, ÀÌÅ»¸®¾Æ, ÀϺ», ·¯½Ã¾Æ´Â °í¿ëÀÚ ¼ö°¡ ÀÌ¹Ì °¨¼ÒÇÏ°í ÀÖÀ¸¸ç, ÀÌµé ³ª¶ó¿¡¼­ Àüü ³ëµ¿Àα¸´Â ¾ÕÀ¸·Î 50³â°£ ¾à 33% ÁÙ¾îµé °ÍÀ¸·Î º¸ÀδÙ.


ÀÌ¿Ü ´ëºÎºÐÀÇ ´Ù¸¥ ±¹°¡µéÀº Àüü °í¿ëÀα¸°¡ 2064³â¿¡ À̸£·¯¼­¾ß Á¤Á¡¿¡ ´ÞÇÏ°ÚÁö¸¸, Áß±¹°ú Çѱ¹ÀÇ °æ¿ì¿£ ±× ÃÖ°íÁ¡ ½Ã±â°¡ 2024³âÀÌ µÉ ¼öµµ ÀÖ´Ù. ³ëµ¿Àα¸°¡ 2064³â±îÁö 50% ÀÌ»ó Áõ°¡ÇÒ °ÍÀ¸·Î º¸ÀÌ´Â Àεµ°¡ À¯ÀÏÇÏ°Ô ÁÖ¸ñÇÒ ¸¸ÇÑ ¿¹¿Ü´Ù. ¹Ì±¹, ³²¾ÆÇÁ¸®Ä«, Àεµ³×½Ã¾ÆÀÇ °æ¿ì °í¿ëÀα¸´Â Áõ°¡ÇÏ°ÚÁö¸¸ °ú°ÅÀÇ Áõ°¡À²¿¡´Â ÇÑÂü ¹ÌÄ¡Áö ¸øÇÒ °ÍÀÌ´Ù.


ÀÌ°ÍÀº ³ëµ¿ÀÚÀÇ ¼ö°¡ ²ÙÁØÈ÷ Áõ°¡ÇØ ¿Â °ú°Å ¹Ý¼¼±â°£ÀÇ Ãß¼¼°¡ È®¿¬È÷ ¿ªÀüµÈ ¸ð½ÀÀÌ´Ù. ¿µ¾Æ »ç¸Á·ü °¨¼Ò, º¸°Ç Çâ»ó, ¾ÈÀüÇÑ Á÷¾÷, ÀüÀï °¨¼Ò°¡ Àα¸ ¼ºÀå°ú ³ëµ¿ÀηÂÀÇ À¯ÀÔÀ» ¾ß±âÇÑ ¿äÀεéÀ̾ú´Ù. ¸ÆŲÁö ±Û·Î¹ú ¿¬±¸¼Ò¿¡ ÀÇÇϸé 1964³â¿¡¼­ 2014³â±îÁö G19 ±¹°¡¿Í ³ªÀÌÁö¸®¾Æ¿¡¼­ °í¿ëÀº ¸Å³â Æò±Õ 1.7% Áõ°¡Çß´Ù. Áï ÀÌ ±â°£ µ¿¾È ³ëµ¿Àα¸°¡ µÎ ¹è·Î ´Ã¾ú´Ù´Â ¶æÀ¸·Î, 20°³ ¼±Áø±¹ GDP ¼ºÀåÀÇ ¿øÀÎ Áß 48%¸¦ Â÷ÁöÇÑ´Ù.


µ¿½Ã¿¡ ³ª¸ÓÁö 52%ÀÇ ¿øÀÎÀº »ý»ê¼ºÀÇ ¹ßÀü¿¡ ÀÖ¾ú´Ù. ÄÄÇ»ÅÍ, ÀÎÅͳÝ, ÀÚµ¿È­¿Í ±¹Á¦È­´Â ¼¼°è °æÁ¦ÀÇ »ý»ê¼º¿¡ °­·ÂÇÑ ¹ßÀü ¿øµ¿·ÂÀÌ µÇ¾ú°í, ±× °á°ú ÇöÀç ÀϹÝÀûÀÎ ³ëµ¿ÀÚÀÇ »ý»ê·®Àº 1964³â¿¡ ºñÇØ 2.4¹è³ª ¸¹´Ù. ±×·¯³ª ¸ðµç °æÁ¦°¡ »ý»ê¼ºÀ» °­È­½Ãų ¼ö ÀÖ´Â ±â¼ú°ú ¼º°úÀÇ ÇýÅÃÀ» ´©¸° °ÍÀº ¾Æ´Ï¹Ç·Î, ÀÌ´Â °ð ³ëµ¿·Â °¨¼Ò¸¦ »ó¼â½ÃÅ°´Â µ¥ ÇÊ¿äÇÑ »ý»ê¼º ÁõÁøÀÇ ±âȸ°¡ µÉ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù. ½ÇÁ¦·Î ¸ÆŲÁö ±Û·Î¹ú ¿¬±¸¼Ò¿¡ µû¸£¸é °³¹ßµµ»ó±¹µéÀº ¼±Áø±¹¿¡ ºñÇØ ¿©ÀüÈ÷ »ý»ê¼ºÀÌ 80%³ª ³·´Ù°í ÇÑ´Ù.


µ½½º ¼ÒÀå°ú ±×ÀÇ µ¿·áµéÀº ¸¸¾à ÀÌµé ±¹°¡°¡ ¼±Áø±¹À» µû¶óÀâ´Â »ý»ê¼º °³¼±À» ÀÌ·ï³½´Ù¸é, ¼¼°è °æÁ¦´Â ±×µéÀÌ ¸ñÇ¥·Î ÇÑ »ý»ê¼º Áõ°¡ÀÇ ¾à 3/4¸¦ ½ÇÇöÇØ ³¾ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù°í ¿¹ÃøÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù. ±×µéÀÌ ÁöÀûÇÑ ´ë·Î, ÀÌ·± °³¼±ÀÌ ÀÌ¹Ì ÀÌ·ïÁø °÷µµ ÀÖÀ¸¸ç, ¼¼°è °÷°÷¿¡¼­ Âø¼öµÇ°í ÀÖ´Ù. ±×µéÀÌ ±Ç°íÇÏ´Â ³»¿ëÀº ´ÙÀ½°ú °°´Ù.


¢º Çö´ëÀûÀÎ ¼Ò¸Å¾÷Á¾ÀÇ ÁöºÐ Áõ´ë


¢º ÀÚµ¿ Á¶¸³ÀåÄ¡ÀÇ ±Ô¸ð¿Í È°¿ë Æø È®´ë


¢º °ø°øº¸°Ç¡¤ÀÇ·áÀÇ ¿î¿µ È¿À² °³¼±


¢º ½ÄÇ°°¡°ø ½Ã Æó±â¹° °¨Ãà


¢º °íºÎ°¡°¡Ä¡ »óÇ°°ú ¼­ºñ½º·ÎÀÇ Àüȯ


±×·¯¸é ¼±Áø±¹Àº ¾î¶²°¡? ¸ÆŲÁö ±Û·Î¹ú ¿¬±¸¼Ò´Â ¿¬±¸¸¦ ÅëÇØ »ý»ê¼ºÀÌ ÀúÁ¶ÇÑ »ê¾÷¡¤È¸»ç¡¤°øÀåµéÀÌ »ý»ê¼ºÀÌ ³ôÀº °÷ÀÇ ¹æ½Ä°ú ±â¼úÀ» Àû¿ëÇÏ¸é »ý»ê¼º Áõ´ëÀÇ 55%°¡ ½ÇÇöµÉ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù°í ÁÖÀåÇß´Ù. ¿¹¸¦ µé¸é ´ÙÀ½°ú °°´Ù.


¢º ¼Ò¸Å¾÷ ºÐ¾ß ¡®¸°Lean¡¯ À¯Åë ¹æ½Ä »ç¿ë


¢º º´¿ø¿¡¼­ ÀÇ»ç¿Í °£È£»çÀÇ ½Ã°£ È°¿ë È¿À²È­


¢º ÀÚµ¿Â÷ Á¦Á¶¿Í ³ó¾÷ µî »ê¾÷ ºÐ¾ß¿¡¼­ °æÀïÀÚÀÇ ¼º°ø»ç·Ê äÅÃ


±×·¯³ª ÀÌ·¸°Ô µû¶óÀâ´Â ¼öÁØÀÇ °³¼±À¸·Î ²ø¾î³¾ ¼ö ÀÖ´Â »ý»ê¼º ¼ºÀå·üÀº ÃÖ´ë 3%¿¡ ºÒ°úÇÏ´Ù. ³ª¸ÓÁö 1% Á¤µµ´Â ƯÈ÷ ¼±Áø±¹ ±â¾÷µéÀÇ Çõ½ÅÀ» ÅëÇؼ­¸¸ ÀÌ·ï³¾ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù. Çõ½ÅÀÇ ±âȸ´Â »õ·Î¿î ±â¼ú°ú ºñÁî´Ï½º ¸ðµ¨¿¡¼­ ãÀ» ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù. ¹ÙÀÌ¿ÀÅ×Å©, ³ª³ëÅ×Å©, 3D ÇÁ¸°ÆÃ, ·Îº¿°øÇÐ, »ç¹°ÀÎÅͳݰú ÇöÀç °³¹ß ÁßÀÎ ´Ù¸¥ ±â¼úµéÀÇ Çõ½ÅÀ» ÅëÇØ ÇöÀç·Î¼­´Â »ó»óÁ¶Â÷ ÇÒ ¼ö ¾ø´Â »ý»ê¼ºÀÇ Çâ»óÀ» À̲ø¾î ³¾ ¼ö ÀÖÀ» °ÍÀÌ´Ù.


ÀÌ¿¡ ¿ì¸®´Â ÇâÈÄ 5°¡ÁöÀÇ ¹Ì·¡¸¦ ¿¹ÃøÇØ º»´Ù.


ù°, °³¹ßµµ»ó±¹°ú ¼±Áø±¹ ¸ðµÎ¿¡¼­ÀÇ »ý»ê¼º Çâ»ó°ú Çõ½ÅÀº ³ëµ¿·Â °¨¼Ò¸¦ º¸ÃæÇÏ°í, ´ÙÀ½ 50³â µ¿¾È Àü ¼¼°è GDP°¡ ¸Å³â 3.5~4% ¿¬Æò±Õ ¼ºÀå·üÀ» ±â·ÏÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖµµ·Ï ÇØ ÁÙ °ÍÀÌ´Ù.


ÀÌ·¸°Ô µÇ¸é Áö³­ 50³â°£ ´©¸° ¹ø¿µ¿¡ À̾, °³ÀεéÀº ¾ÕÀ¸·Î 50³â°£ »îÀÇ ¼öÁØÀ» Àû¾îµµ 5.8¹è ³ôÀÏ ¼ö ÀÖÀ» °ÍÀÌ´Ù. ÀÌ´Â ¸ÆŲÁö ±Û·Î¹ú ¿¬±¸¼Ò°¡ ¼ºÀå·üÀÌ Á¤Ã¼µÇ¾úÀ» °æ¿ì ¿¹ÃøÇß´ø 2.3¹è¿Í ºñ±³ÇÏ¸é µÎ ¹è°¡ ³Ñ´Â´Ù. µ¿½Ã¿¡ ³ô¾ÆÁø °¡°è ¼Òµæ°ú ½ÃÀå ±Ô¸ð Áõ´ë·Î ±â¾÷µéµµ ÀÌÀÍÀ» º¼ °ÍÀ̸ç, À̷νá Áö¼ÓÀûÀÎ »ý»ê¼º °­È­¸¦ À̲ø ¼ö ÀÖ´Â ¿¬±¸°³¹ß¿¡ ÅõÀÚµµ °¡´ÉÇÏ°Ô µÈ´Ù.


°³¹ßµµ»ó±¹ Á¤ºÎ´Â ÀÚ±¹ÀÇ ±Ù´ëÈ­¿Í Áß»êÃþ È®»ê¿¡ ÇÊ¿äÇÑ ±â¹Ý½Ã¼³ µî¿¡ ÅõÀÚÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖÀ» °ÍÀÌ´Ù. ¸¶Âù°¡Áö·Î ¼±Áø±¹ Á¤ºÎµµ ³ë·ÉÀα¸ Áõ°¡¿Í ³ëµ¿·Â °¨¼Ò¸¦ À̰ܳ»°í ¹Ì±¹ »çȸº¸Àå¹ý°ú °°Àº ¿¬±Ý Á¦µµ³ª ÇÁ·Î±×·¥À» ¿î¿µÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ°Ô µÈ´Ù. ÇÏÁö¸¸ ÀÌ´Â ¸ðµÎ µ½½º ¼ÒÀå°ú µ¿·áµéÀÌ Á¤ÀÇÇÑ ¿­ °¡Áö ¡®ÇٽɻçÇס¯ÀÌ ÀÌÇàµÇ¾î¾ß °¡´ÉÇÑ ÀÏÀÌ´Ù. ÀÌ¿¡ ´ëÇؼ­´Â µÚÀÌ¾î ¼³¸íÇÒ °ÍÀÌ´Ù.


µÑ°, °³¹ßµµ»ó±¹ÀÇ ºñÁî´Ï½º´Â ¿¬°£ 3%ÀÇ »ý»ê¼º Áõ´ë¸¦ À§ÇØ µû¶óÀâ±â½Ä °³¹ßÀ» ÃßÁøÇÒ °ÍÀÌ´Ù.


ÀÌ´Â ±×µéÀÌ ´ÙÀ½ÀÇ ¼¼ °¡Áö ÇٽɻçÇ×µéÀ» ¾ó¸¶³ª Àß ¼öÇàÇس¾ ¼ö ÀÖ´À³Ä¿¡ ´Þ·È´Ù.


1. ¼­ºñ½º ºÎ¹®¿¡¼­ °æÀï¿¡ ´ëÇÑ À庮 Á¦°Å


2. °ø°ø±ÔÁ¦¿¡ ÀÖ¾î È¿À²¼º ¹× ¼º°ú °ü¸®¿¡ ÁýÁß


3. ƯÈ÷ ½ÅÈï ½ÃÀåÀÇ ¹°¸®Àû ½Ã¼³, µðÁöÅÐ ±â¹Ý¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ÅõÀÚ


¼Â°, ±â¾÷µéÀº »ý»ê¼ºÀ» ¸Å³â 1% Ãß°¡·Î Áõ´ë½ÃÅ°±â À§ÇØ Çõ½ÅÀ» Àå·ÁÇÒ °ÍÀÌ´Ù.


ÀÌ´Â ´ÙÀ½ÀÇ ³× °¡Áö ÇٽɻçÇ×µéÀ» ÀÌÇàÇÏ´Â µ¥ ´Þ·ÁÀÖ´Ù.


1. »ý»ê¼ºÀ» Àå·ÁÇÏ°í Çõ½ÅÀ» Áö¿øÇϴ ȯ°æ Á¶¼º


2. Çõ½ÅÀû Á¦Ç°°ú ¼­ºñ½º¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ¿¬±¸°³¹ß ÅõÀÚ¿Í ±×¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ¼ö¿ä Á¶¼º


3. ÀüȯÀû °³¼± ±âȸ¸¦ Æ÷ÂøÇϱâ À§ÇØ ±âÁ¸¡¤½Å±Ô µ¥ÀÌÅÍ Å½»ö


4. Àγ뼾ƼºêInnoCentive(¿Â¶óÀÎ ¿¬±¸°³¹ß Ç÷§Æû)¿Í ű½ºÅ¸ÅÍKickstarter(¼Ò¼È Æݵù »çÀÌÆ®) °°Àº µðÁöÅÐ Ç÷§ÆûÀ» ÅëÇØ »ý»ê¼º¿¡ »õ·Î¿î µ¿·Â Ãß±¸


³Ý°, ¿ì¸®´Â ÀÏÇÏÁö ¾Ê°í ÀÖ´Â »ç¶÷µéÀ» ÀÏÇϵµ·Ï °Ý·ÁÇÏ°í Áö¿øÇÔÀ¸·Î½á ¼¼°è ³ëµ¿·ÂÀÇ Àú¼ºÀåÀ» º¸ÃæÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖÀ» °ÍÀÌ¶ó ¿¹ÃøÇÑ´Ù.


Á÷Àå¿¡¼­ ¼º°øÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖµµ·Ï °ÅÀÇ ¸ðµç »ç¶÷µé¿¡°Ô ±â¼úÀ» ÈƷýÃÄÑ¾ß ÇÑ´Ù. ¿©±â¿£ Ãß°¡ÀûÀÎ µÎ °¡Áö ÇٽɻçÇ×ÀÌ ÇÊ¿äÇÏ´Ù.


1. ¿©¼º, û³â, ³ë³âÃþÀÌ ³ëµ¿½ÃÀå¿¡ Âü¿©ÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Â Á¦µµ ¸¶·Ã°ú »çȸÀû Áö¿ø


2. Á÷¾÷¿¡ ¸Â´Â ±â¼ú ±³À°À¸·ÎÀÇ °³¼±°ú ³ëµ¿½ÃÀå À¯¿¬È­


´Ù¼¸Â°, ¿ì¸®´Â »ý»ê¼ºÀ» Áõ´ë½Ãų ¼ö ÀÖ´Â È¿À²¼º Á¦°í¸¦ À§ÇØ ¼¼°è °æÁ¦°¡ ¾ÕÀ¸·Î ´õ ÅëÇÕµÉ °ÍÀ¸·Î ¿¹ÃøÇÑ´Ù.


¿©±â¿£ ¸ÆŲÁö°¡ ¿ä±¸ÇÏ´Â ¸¶Áö¸· ÇٽɻçÇ×ÀÌ ÇÊ¿äÇÏ´Ù. ¹Ù·Î ¡°»óÇ°°ú ¼­ºñ½ºÀÇ °Å·¡ºÎÅÍ »ç¶÷ÀÇ È帧¿¡ À̸£±â±îÁö °æÁ¦Àû À庮À» ¸ðµÎ Ç㹫´Â °Í¡±ÀÌ´Ù. ÀÌ »õ·Î¿î »ý°¢°ú ¸ð¹ü»ç·Ê¸¦ Àü ¼¼°è¿¡ Àû¿ë½ÃÅ°¸é °³ÀÎ, ±â¾÷, Á¤ºÎ´Â »ý»ê¼ºÀ» Çâ»ó½ÃÅ°°í ¼¼»ó ¸ðµÎ°¡ ´õ ³ªÀº »îÀ» »ì ¼ö ÀÖ´Â º¯È­¸¦ À̲ø¾î³¾ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù.


* *

References List :
1. Harvard Business Review, January 20, 2015, "The Productivity Challenge of an Aging Global Workforce," by James Manyika, Jaana Remes, and Richard Dobbs. ¨Ï 2015 Harvard Business Publishing. All rights reserved.
https://hbr.org/2015/01/the-productivity-challenge-of-an-aging-global-workforce


2. McKinsey Global Institute, January 2015, "Global Growth: Can Productivity Save the Day in an Aging World?" by James Manyika, Jonathan Woetzel, Richard Dobbs, Jaana Remes, Eric Labaye, and Andrew Jordan. ¨Ï 2015 McKinsey & Company. All rights reserved.
http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/growth/can_long-term_global_growth_be_saved


3. To access data from the United Nations report "World Population Prospects," visit their website at:
http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm


4. The Empty Cradle: How Falling Birthrates Threaten World Prosperity and What to Do About It by Philip Longman is published by Basic Books, a member of the Perseus Books Group. ¨Ï 2004 Philip Longman. All rights reserved.


5. Fewer: How the New Demography of Depopulation Will Shape Our Future by Ben J. Wattenberg is published by Ivan R. Dee. ¨Ï 2004 by Ben J. Wattenberg. All rights reserved.



Economic Growth in an Aging World
 
There are two primary ways an economy can grow.


- It can expand the amount of work performed by increasing the number of people.


- It can expand the amount of work performed by increasing the productivity per people.


Unfortunately, the first approach is not an option. Demographic trends - such as the aging of the Baby Boom generation and the dramatic drop in the global birth rate - have brought an end to the era in which the global economy could grow simply by expanding the number of people with jobs. From 1964 to 2014, employment grew by an average of 1.7 percent per year. But over the next fifty years, it is projected to plummet to 0.3 percent annually. Clearly, this suggests that the fate of the worlds economy depends on the second option: improving productivity.


The need is urgent, because the rate of global GDP growth is projected to decline from the historical trend of 3.6 percent over the past fifty years, to just 2.1 percent for the next fifty years.1 If this happened, average GDP growth for the next half century would be one-third lower than it was during the past five years of the frustratingly slow recovery from the Great Recession. Instead of growing 600 percent as it has since 1964, the global economy would grow by only 300 percent by 2064.


The only way to offset this drop is by growing productivity 80 percent faster than the already blistering pace of the past fifty years: that means jumping from the current 1.8 percent to 3.3 percent.


Is this even possible? According to a compelling study by McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) titled "Global Growth in an Aging World",3 it will not be easy, but it can be done. Drawing on nearly 25 years of research on economic growth, MGI directors Richard Dobbs, James Manyika, and Jonathan Woetzel found opportunities for improvement in the twenty national economies that comprise 80 percent of the worlds GDP - that is the G19 countries, plus Nigeria.


Well explore their specific recommendations a bit later, but the bottom line is that if companies and national governments adopt existing best practices, productivity growth could grow by 3 percent. The rest of the productivity gains could come from innovation.


Before we get to the details, lets quickly examine why the labor pool is running dry. Weve covered the impact of the declining birth rate in previous issues of Trends, so well keep this brief. The combination of several forces - more women in the workforce, improved contraception methods, and changing societal values toward smaller families - has pushed global birth rates to record lows.
 
As we discussed in our September 2011 issue, according to the UNs World Population Prospects,3 populations in fifty of the worlds countries will shrink substantially between now and 2050. For example, Russias population will drop by 22 percent. Ukraine will lose almost half its population, with a decline of 43 percent.
 
In China, according to demographer Philip Longman, author of The Empty Cradle,4 each generation after 2050 will be 20 to 30 percent smaller than the preceding one. And in his book Fewer: How the New Demography of Depopulation Will Shape Our Future,5 Ben Wattenberg writes that Europe is now losing 700,000 people each year, and will lose three million or more each year by 2050.
 
Overall, according to MGI, population growth is projected to drop in every one of the G19 countries.


In Germany, Italy, Japan, and Russia, the number of employees is already shrinking, and the total workforce in these countries could drop by as much as 33 percent over the next fifty years. In most other countries, employment is expected to peak by 2064, but it could happen by 2024 in China and South Korea. The only notable exceptions are India, where the number of workers is expected to jump by more than 50 percent by 2064; and the U.S., South Africa, and Indonesia, where employment should continue to increase, though much more slowly than in the past.


This is a sharp reversal from the trend of the past half-century, when the number of workers in the world economy grew steadily. Declining infant mortality rates, improved healthcare, safer jobs, and fewer wars were all factors that led to population growth and increased participation in the labor force. From 1964 to 2014, according to MGI, employment in the G19 and Nigeria increased by an average of 1.7 percent per year. This doubled the labor force and accounted for 48 percent of GDP growth in the twenty leading economies.


At the same time, productivity improvements accounted for the other 52 percent of the increase in GDP. Computers, the Internet, automation, and globalization of the worlds economies created a powerful boost to productivity, and as a result todays average employee produces 2.4 times more output than the average worker of 1964.


However, not all economies have taken advantage of available productivity-enhancing technologies and practices, and this provides an opportunity to generate much of the productivity growth that will be needed to offset the decline in labor-force growth. In fact, according to MGI, emerging economies are still 80 percent less productive than developed economies.
 
Dobbs and his colleagues estimate that if those countries embraced what they call "catch-up" productivity improvements, the world economy could realize about three-quarters of the potential for productivity growth theyve identified. As they point out, all of these improvements have already been discovered and are being implemented in other parts of the world. Some of their recommendations include:


- Increasing the share of modern retail formats.


- Increasing the scale and capacity utilization of auto assemblers.


- Improving operational efficiency in health care.


- Reducing waste in food processing.


- Shifting to a greater share of higher-value products and services.


What about developed economies? The MGI study found that 55 percent of their potential productivity increases would result from low-productivity industries, companies, and factories adopting the practices and technologies of those higher in productivity. Examples include:


- Using lean supply-chain operations in retail.


- Scheduling doctors and nurses time more efficiently in hospitals and medical clinics.


- Adopting best practices from competitors in industries such as automotive manufacturing and agriculture.


However, "catch-up" improvements will, at best, only generate about a 3 percent growth rate in productivity. To generate another 1 percent, companies - particularly those in the developed world - will need to innovate.
 
Opportunities for innovation include new technologies and business models. Breakthroughs in biotech, nanotech, 3D printing, robotics, the "Internet of Things," and other technologies that are still being developed will lead to leaps in productivity that cant even be imagined at this point.


Looking ahead, we forecast the following developments arising from this important trend:


First, productivity improvements and innovations in both emerging countries and developed nations will compensate for the shrinking labor force and enable global GDP to grow at an average annual rate of between 3.5 percent and 4 percent over the next half century.


This will enable individuals to increase their standard of living by at least 5.8 times over the next fifty years, in line with the gains over the past fifty years. This is more than double MGIs projection of just 2.3 times if productivity growth slows. At the same time, businesses will benefit from higher consumer incomes and larger markets for their offerings, which in turn will enable them to invest in R&D to generate further productivity enhancements. Governments of emerging economies will be able to pay for the infrastructure and other investments needed to modernize their countries and expand the size of the middle class. Likewise, governments of developed nations will be able to meet their pension obligations and programs like Social Security despite the aging of the population and the dwindling of the workforce. This will all depend, however, on the presence of the ten "enablers" identified by Dobbs and his colleagues, which we have outlined in the remaining forecasts.


Second, businesses in emerging economies will make "catch-up" improvements to grow productivity at an annual rate of 3 percent.


This will depend on them implementing the first three enablers:


1. Removing barriers to competition in service sectors.


2. Focusing on efficiency and performance management in public and regulated sectors.


3. Investing in physical and digital infrastructure, especially in emerging markets.


Third, companies will have incentives to innovate in such ways as to increase productivity growth by another 1 percent annually.


This depends on implementing the following four key enablers, particularly in advanced economies:


1. Crafting a regulatory environment that incentivizes productivity and supports innovation.


2. Fostering demand for and R&D investment in innovative products and services.


3. Exploiting existing and new data to identify transformational improvement opportunities.


4. Harnessing the power of new actors in the productivity landscape through digital platforms like Innocentive and Kickstarter.


For our fourth forecast, the Trends editors foresee that society will compensate for the slowing growth of the global labor pool by encouraging and enabling people who arent working to work, while training nearly everyone in the skills they need to succeed in the modern workplace.


This will require implementation of two additional enablers:


1. Creating regulation and social support to boost labor-market participation among women, young people, and older people.


2. Improving education, match skills to jobs, and make labor markets more flexible.


Fifth, we forecast that the worlds economies will become more fully integrated in order to unleash the efficiency that leads to higher productivity.


This depends on the implementation of one final enabler identified by McKinsey: Opening up economies to cross-border economic flows, ranging from trade in goods and services to flows of people. By embracing new ideas and best practices from around the globe, individuals, businesses, and governments can make the changes that will boost productivity and create a better standard of living for all of the worlds people.


References
1. Harvard Business Review, January 20, 2015, "The Productivity Challenge of an Aging Global Workforce," by James Manyika, Jaana Remes, and Richard Dobbs. ¨Ï 2015 Harvard Business Publishing. All rights reserved.

https://hbr.org/2015/01/the-productivity-challenge-of-an-aging-global-workforce


2. McKinsey Global Institute, January 2015, "Global Growth: Can Productivity Save the Day in an Aging World?" by James Manyika, Jonathan Woetzel, Richard Dobbs, Jaana Remes, Eric Labaye, and Andrew Jordan. ¨Ï 2015 McKinsey & Company. All rights reserved.

http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/growth/can_long-term_global_growth_be_saved


3. To access data from the United Nations report "World Population Prospects," visit their website at:

http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm


4. The Empty Cradle: How Falling Birthrates Threaten World Prosperity and What to Do About It by Philip Longman is published by Basic Books, a member of the Perseus Books Group. ¨Ï 2004 Philip Longman. All rights reserved.


5. Fewer: How the New Demography of Depopulation Will Shape Our Future by Ben J. Wattenberg is published by Ivan R. Dee. ¨Ï 2004 by Ben J. Wattenberg. All rights reserved.