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China¡¯s $5 Trillion a Year Growth Opportunity


The year 2016 is the Year of the Monkey in the Chinese Zodiac calendar, and the monkey is associated with the personality trait of changeability. The ability to change is precisely what the Chinese economy needs right now.

There¡¯s no question that a focus on investment made sense when China was transforming itself from an impoverished Third World country into the world¡¯s second largest economy. Since 1980, it has elevated more than 600 million of its people out of poverty, primarily by creating jobs in factories and on infrastructure projects.

But, while China continues to pursue its investment-driven economic model, the signs that this approach no longer fits the country¡¯s new reality are rampant:

- Last year, its GDP grew at less than 7 percent, the slowest rate since 1990, and down from 19 percent as recently as 2011.

- The debt amassed by its non-financial corporations reached new heights at 136 percent of GDP, double the level of 2007.

- The amount of fixed capital investment to produce one unit of GDP climbed 60 percent higher than the amount from 1990 to 2010.

- China¡¯s stock market lost half its value during the year.

- Foreign reserves dropped by half a trillion dollars.

Factor in other problems we¡¯ve covered extensively in Trends, such as China¡¯s aging population, its shortage of women relative to men due to its disastrous one-child policy, and its wasteful spending on infrastructure that isn¡¯t needed, and it¡¯s clear that its economy is facing a catastrophe if it keeps following its current course.1

What¡¯s the solution? China must shift from its focus on investment to a focus on productivity. The country has tremendous room for growth in this area: Its labor productivity is a mere 15?30 percent of the average of the OECD countries.

An economic model driven by productivity would stop investing in industries that are already overbuilt, and instead invest in businesses that are productive and driving job growth. Rather than attracting more capital, failing businesses would be forced to shut their doors.

According to a new report from the McKinsey Global Institute by Jonathan Woetzel and his colleagues, if China adopted a productivity-led model, by 2030 it would create $5.6 trillion more in GDP, and $5.1 trillion more in annual household income, than it would if it continued to follow its current investment-led economic strategy.2

The report highlights five opportunities for China to raise productivity by 2030 and become a truly advanced economy.

The first opportunity is to meet the rising aspirations of Chinese middle-class consumers. China¡¯s consumption growth has gone up by $1.1 trillion in the first half of this decade, accounting for 25 percent of the growth in global consumption.

However, consumption as a share of China¡¯s GDP has remained at roughly 36 percent from 2008 to 2015. By 2030, this figure is likely to approach 50 percent, as Chinese consumer spending expands from $4.1 trillion per year to $10.8 trillion per year.

That $6.7 trillion increase in consumer spending will happen because income levels will rise in China¡¯s cities, giving urban residents of working age more disposable income to spend. McKinsey believes that one-third of consumption growth will occur in China¡¯s three largest urban centers: Beijing, Shandong, and Shanghai.

A 2016 McKinsey & Company survey of 10,000 people in 44 cities reveals that more than half of Chinese consumers aspire to own luxury goods they can¡¯t find on the domestic market. In 2015, Chinese tourists spent more than $100 billion on high-end products when traveling overseas, a clear indication of pent-up demand for better quality offerings at home.

Chinese companies can tap into this demand by offering premium products. Since the global recession ended, sales of premium offerings have been increasing faster than the overall market for those products. For instance, from 2008 to 2014, premium chocolate sales have risen 26 percent per year compared to 12 percent; sales of premium personal-care products have grown 13 percent vs. 10 percent; and sales of premium sportswear have gone up 12 percent vs. 5 percent.

Companies will need to add high-end offerings to appeal to Chinese consumers who crave premium products and are willing to pay higher prices.

The second opportunity is to embrace digitization. Companies in China will need to embed digital technologies into the products they offer. While the consumer electronics sector has grown 14 percent per year during this decade, smartphones and wearable devices are growing at more than 50 percent per year.

In the automobile sector, two out of three Chinese consumers say they would buy a different brand of car if it was the only one that offered full access to apps, data, and media; by contrast, only one of five Germans, and one of three Americans, feel the same way.

In service industries, digital e-commerce platforms will allow Chinese retailers to market to consumers in other cities and in rural areas without having to establish physical stores. Logistics companies, of which there are 700,000 in China, will improve their efficiency by using digital platforms for scheduling. In healthcare, doctors in urban hospitals will use telemedicine systems to offer diagnoses to patients in rural clinics.

The third opportunity for China is to innovate and move up the value chain. Chinese companies can increase their profitability by adding more value to products and services.

Traditionally, Chinese firms have relied on using their economies of scale to manufacture goods, such as electronics designed by U.S. or Japanese engineers. Even in industries in which competitiveness relies on innovation, such as vehicles, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors, Chinese companies¡¯ profits are about two-thirds less than their U.S., Japanese, and European rivals because they engage in lower-value-added activities.

For example, in the automotive industry, Chinese car manufacturers typically rely on joint ventures with foreign companies that enable them to adapt an existing template to their own market, rather than designing their own products. It doesn¡¯t help that Chinese car companies invest 50 percent less than their foreign partners on R&D as a share of sales.

If Chinese companies made a greater commitment to R&D, they could dominate the domestic market for electric and hybrid vehicles. While surveys show that most Chinese consumers would rather buy a foreign car than a Chinese car, the electric car market is still relatively new, so Chinese car buyers haven¡¯t yet developed a bias against domestic manufacturers.

In the semiconductor industry, Chinese companies manufacture chips designed by foreign companies, so they capture only a small share of the industry¡¯s profits. China needs to develop its own capabilities in designing semiconductors, or else acquire those capabilities via mergers and acquisitions of overseas partners.

In the pharmaceutical industry, Chinese companies produce only 3 percent of global branded drugs. China has armies of PhDs and researchers dedicated to developing drugs, and policymakers are working to reduce the time it takes to get a new drug approved, so this is an area where the country can make rapid progress through innovation.

The fourth opportunity is to transform operations. If Chinese companies embrace automation and adopt lean processes, they could improve labor productivity by 15?30 percent by 2030.

Even though China buys more robots than any other country, it only deploys 36 robots per 10,000 manufacturing workers. That¡¯s only half the average of the rest of the world, and less than 10 percent of the number in South Korea. Like the U.S. and other advanced economies, China could replace low-skilled jobs with robots and then create new jobs for higher- skilled workers throughout its economy.

Chinese companies have also been slow to adopt lean processes and approaches such as Six Sigma. If implemented by Chinese firms, these techniques could lower costs and boost quality.

Finally, the fifth opportunity is to go global and strengthen competitiveness. China will need to go beyond merely manufacturing cheap goods for the global economy and become a true global competitor. One way to achieve this objective is by entering foreign markets and competing against multinational corporations in their home markets.

Consider that the top five Chinese companies earn less than 10 percent of their total revenues from foreign sales, far less than the 30?70 percent that multinationals based in other countries earn in overseas markets. By pursuing a global strategy, Chinese companies would reach new markets and increase their labor productivity by 10?15 percent by 2030.

Based on this trend, we offer the following forecasts:

First, China¡¯s leaders will realize that the change from an investment-led economy to a productivity-led economy is inevitable.

They will respond to the urgent need for reform by taking at least a few of the following six steps recommended by McKinsey:

1. Open more sectors up to competition to drive more innovation and improve customer service.

2. Improve the breadth and quality of capital markets by establishing independent credit-rating agencies, releasing accurate data about China¡¯s economy, and communicating clearly about monetary policy.

3. Enable corporate restructuring by improving the bankruptcy process to let weak companies fail.

4. Invest in talent by increasing funding for education and focusing on the skills needed for success in the private sector.

5. Boost consumer demand by increasing healthcare and retirement benefits to enable consumers to save less and spend more.

6. Improve public-sector productivity by digitizing government operations and the delivery of services.

Second, as China improves its productivity and becomes an advanced economy, U.S. companies will face a greater threat from Chinese competitors.

Chinese companies will invest in R&D to develop premium products for the domestic market, as well as innovative offerings in industries like consumer electronics and pharmaceuticals. Then they will use their advantages in scale manufacturing, enhanced by increasing investments in automation, to attack the U.S. market as well as the markets that American companies target, such as the EU, Mexico, South America, and Japan.

Third, China¡¯s growing middle class will provide a lucrative market for foreign companies.

China now boasts 116 million middle-class and affluent households, with annual disposable income of at least $21,000 per year; that¡¯s up from 2 million households in 2000. As their disposable income continues to grow, urban Chinese workers will increase their consumption not just of Chinese-made goods, but also of best-in-class products, regardless of their origin. One U.S. business that is moving aggressively into China is Starbucks; it has already opened 1,700 coffee shops in more than 90 Chinese cities, and it plans to add 500 cafes per year to keep up with the demand.

References
1. Trends, December 2015, ¡°China Hits the Demographic Great Wall.¡± ¨Ï 2015 AudioTech Inc. All rights reserved. http://audiotech.com/trends-magazine/china-hits-the-demographic-great-wall/2. McKinsey Global Institute, June 2016, ¡°China¡¯s Choice: Capturing the $5 Trillion Productivity Opportunity,¡± by Jonathan Woetzel, Yougang Chen, Jeongmin Seong, Nicolas Leung, Kevin Sneader, and Jon Kowalski. ¨Ï 2016 McKinsey & Company. All rights reserved. http://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/employment-and-growth/capturing-chinas-5-trillion-productivity-opportunity